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https://drlou.substack.com/p/specialist-psychologists-helped-iran

Специалисты-психологи помогли Ирану управлять Трампом. Израиль теперь в ещё большей опасности

Источник: https://drlou.substack.com/p/specialist-psychologists-helped-iran

Краткое содержание

Автор (Dr. Loupis) оценивает МОВ США–Иран как катастрофическую капитуляцию Трампа, опасную прежде всего для Израиля. По имеющимся данным (позиция автора), Иран привлёк специалистов-психологов для выстраивания переговорной тактики с учётом предполагаемого психического состояния Трампа, что оказалось эффективным.

Иран и психологическая тактика

По сообщениям ряда источников (непроверено), иранская сторона использовала психологов-специалистов вместо политических или научных экспертов для управления переговорами с Трампом. Автор считает это объяснением успеха Ирана. Также упоминается, что Китай и Россия, по всей видимости, применяли схожие подходы в контактах с Трампом.

Положение Израиля

Автор считает, что МОВ напрямую ставит Израиль под угрозу: Трамп отстранил Израиль и Нетаньяху от переговоров, якобы взяв на себя обязательство от имени Израиля не нападать на Хезболлу и Ливан — при этом никаких встречных ограничений для Ирана и его союзников в отношении Израиля в документе нет. Автор проводит параллель с выводом войск из Афганистана в обход афганского правительства.

Статус Нетаньяху как «доверенного переговорщика с Трампом», по оценке автора, полностью разрушен. JD Вэнс назван «козлом отпущения номер один», Израиль — «номер два».

Внутренняя политика США и Stephen Miller

Автор критикует Стивена Миллера — «теневого президента» — за приоритизацию внутренних миграционных репрессий в ущерб внешней политике. Упоминается попытка Миллера отменить habeas corpus для ускорения депортаций.

Более широкий контекст

Автор занимает произраильскую позицию: осуждает Hamas, Хезболлу, хуситов и Иран как реальных инициаторов геноцида, критикует западный дискурс, игнорирующий нападение 7 октября. При этом он также критикует действия Нетаньяху в Ливане как несоразмерные и призывает к его отставке.

МОВ оценивается как документ без реальной юридической силы: Иран получает замороженные активы, снятие санкций и контроль над Ормузским проливом, тогда как США не получают ничего гарантированного. Контроль над проливом, по мнению автора, остаётся в руках Ирана совместно с Оманом.

Значимость

Публикация представляет точку зрения произраильски настроенного комментатора, критикующего Трампа с позиции защиты Израиля. Тезис о психологах-переговорщиках не подтверждён независимыми источниками. Основной вывод: США проиграли, Иран укрепился, Израиль оказался в наиболее уязвимом положении за последние десятилетия.

🧾 Транскрипт (формат)

Specialist Psychologists helped Iran manage Trump. Israel is now at even more risk due to Trump. The US is, too

Источник: https://drlou.substack.com/p/specialist-psychologists-helped-iran

Iran Brought Two Psychiatrists To Negotiate With Trump Due to His "Mental Illness." He Never Stood A Chance.

Trump’s deal is a catastrophic capitulation to Iran’s aggressors, leaves Israel vulnerable and constrained

There is no agreement between the US and Iran...just a piece of paper with electronic signatures that promises to keep talking about talking for which JD Vance has given handed primary responsibility. That makes JD scapegoat number one.

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Trump unconditionally threw Israel under the bus completely cutting out the country and Netanyahu from the negotiations even as Netanyahu has built his current political mirage around his supposed relationship with Trump. That Netanyahu is a fraud who has been played for a fool by the dementia addled Trump should be sadly apparent. He must be voted out of office if he, as he’s claimed, truly still plans to run. Israel’s President Herzog may want to talk more with Netanyahu about his plans

Trump has supposedly agreed on Israel’s behalf that Israel won’t attack Hezbollah or Lebanon. At the same time, he made no accommodation with Iran that Hezbollah and Iran’s other proxies from Hamas to the Houthis will not attack Israel.

Trump’s Has Done This Before

This is, in fact, the same basic model Trump played when he ignored both the Afghan government and specific recommendations by the US military in Afghanistan as he unconditionally handed back Afghanistan to the Taliban dooming that tragic nation and, especially, its women and girls.

Trump had first demanded the release of about 5,000 militant Islamists from Afghan jails and the Taliban second-in-command from prison in Pakistan. One might have thought that Netanyahu and Likud had been paying attention to Trump’s amorality and lack of any loyalty but to himself and the words in his head at any given time.

In his article, David Horovitz from the Times of Israel writes that <em>’the MOU directly endangers and constrains Israel, with terminology that binds Israel to a ceasefire it had no part in negotiating.’</em>

And I agree but, perhaps, with a slightly different take. Inasmuch as Israel was blocked from participating by Trump and is not a signatory to this failed MOU, Israel is not bound to a single word that’s been written.

At the same time, Trump’s ‘agreement’ creates conditions between Israel and Iran/Hezbollah which will likely become even more volatile than before. Hezbollah has continued to attack Israel as recently as today when ‘five IDF soldiers were injured — including one seriously — by explosive drones launched by Hezbollah at troops in southern Lebanon.’

To add to the clear confusion, while attending the G-7 conference in France, Trump said that ’I don’t want Israel to quit fighting Hezbollah, but I ‘want them to use good judgment.’ Trump is hardly the arbiter of ‘good judgement.’

I would offer that as Israel legitimately responds to continued Hezbollah aggression, Iran’s new military junta may feel even more empowered to directly engage Israel citing Trump’s nonsense MOU ‘agreement’ which sells out of Israel. Israel could find itself wholly alone and unsupported as its next coming war with Iran which is more likely to frighteningly escalate.

Frankly, I’ve also identified that Netanyahu’s war against Hezbollah cannot continue to destroy large residential sites and apartment blocks because one Hezbollah operative - might - have been seen going into a particular building.

This is the one and only thing Trump’s referenced with which I can’t disagree. In addition to unjustified death and destruction in Lebanon, such extreme and disproportionate violence by Netanyahu and his coalition MUST stop. West Bank settler terrorism must stop. But none of this can happen so long as Netanyahu and his coalition remain in office.

The ‘Trump Whisperer’ Is No More

But as Trump is controlled by Russell Vought and the Himmler look alike and shadow president, Stephen Miller in the US, Netanyahu is dominated by and responsive to the most violent members of his coalition. It is to they Netanyahu both performs and must answer. I’m now especially curious how he is going to sling his catastrophic failure to Israel since his first attempt has abjectly failed. And Netanyahu’s self perceived status as a ‘Trump whisperer’ has been instantly disintegrated.

Horovitz’s commentary is largely spot on to include his overall analysis of the 14-point MOU supposedly already signed by Trump, Iran, JD Vance, and others electronically. And all this has been done without any engagement by Israel.

’According to a draft of the text obtained by The Times of Israel, CNN and Bloomberg on Wednesday, the 14-point MOU potentially grants the regime hundreds of billions of dollars — which it will doubtless utilize to help keep its restive population in line, to massively fund Hezbollah, Hamas and its other terrorist proxies, and to spend as needed on its nuclear and ballistic missile programs. The draft agreement provides for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz — the vital waterway Iran seized and leveraged to push Trump into this deal — but with no long-term commitment by the regime to keep it open and toll-free’

The Strait of Hormuz, it clearly appears, will remain a protectorate of Iran which, in partnership with Oman, will no doubt continue to keep it under Iran’s primary control to include continuation of the fee for passage model it has already initiated. Trump has turned Iran into an empowered military dictatorship controlled more than ever by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, or IRCG.

As his deteriorating mind drifts far from his once stated goals of ‘regime change’ and support for the Iranian opposition whom he had promised to ‘have their back,’ Trump has simultaneously put both Israel and the Iranian opposition at even more massive risk.

Trump also declared he has now found this same murderous and terrorist Iranian leadership to be ‘very rational’ and ‘smart’ people who were not ‘radicalized.’ Trump clearly knows little about Iran or the IRCG. It’s unfortunate that neither Trump nor his interlocuters can claim their being either rational or smart.

While Iran’s ballistic missile and drone capacity has certainly been reduced, it is still quite strong and no doubt being rapidly expanded, as more than enough portable launchers remain available.

As noted, Israel has not agreed to and is not a signatory on any this supposed documentation with Iran. But Iran stands to receive massive amounts of money by the truckload - as Trump once lied about Obama - in Trump’s desperate attempt to escape his humiliation and loss to Iran

There is no agreement. There is no mutual end to Trump’s Epstein War of choice against Iran. Trump is, in fact, still threatening Iran saying that the ‘MOU with Iran ‘not final,’ we’ll go ‘back to dropping bombs’ if talks fail.’

But just a short while ago at the G7 conference, it was learned that even ’while Trump now suggests that additional bombing would have caused major harm to the global economy, he said hours earlier that he will go back to bombing if Iran does not comply with the deal.’ It is clear Trump is not able to control the failed non-stop firing of the neurons in his brain

Iran reportedly brought in specialist psychologists, rather than political or scientific experts, to help deal with and respond to Trump’s deteriorating mental status as part of their ‘negotiations.’ And as it has been reported, it’s clear Iran’s unique strategy was quite effective. Yet, the GOP Congress remains in their self imposed twilight zone.

This makes Trump’s current status a major high urgency national security risk. Xi In China and, without question, Putin in Russia have almost certainly similarly targeted Trump in their engagements. On Sunday, Trump managed to fall sound asleep (or pass out?) in the front row of loud, yelling, screaming cage fights.

Trump’s shadow president Stephen Miller, doesn’t seem to care much about foreign policy. He’s more focused on demeaning and degrading America’s Constitution and pushing violent white supremacy. The New York Times has reported that Miller tried to eliminate habeas corpus (that arrests must always be justified) to speed up his brutal illegal immigrant deportation scam. According to the Times, the only thing that stopped him was a conservative White House lawyer who wrote a letter to Susie Wiles, Trump’s chief of staff, basically saying they couldn’t do any such thing. Miller also likely doesn’t know that the writ of habeas corpus was first constructed when the Magna Carta was signed in 1215.

Trump’s Epstein War of choice in Iran is not over. There is no agreement but an MOU to talk about an agreement with JD Vance as scapegoat number one and Israel as Trump’s scapegoat number two.

Whether ships have really started to move in the Strait of Hormuz is anybody’s guess in that Trump’s word is worthless. Traveling through Hormuz continues to carry great risk to include the existence of mines combined with the need for Iran’s military junta to approve passage while collecting the requisite fees

The only thing certain is that Trump’s illegal, incoherent and deeply confused war of Epstein choice in Iran has left Iran a greatly strengthened heavily empowered military dictatorship with more geopolitical power than it had ever previously dreamed

An important point is that Israel is a sovereign nation with its own right to exist and live in security and stability. Historically, nationhood more often happens quite violently. White Supremacist European America is on land stolen from indigenous people on whom they perpetrated a real, and still ongoing, genocide starting in the 16th century by Spain and Spanish missionaries and picked up by European colonists a short time later.

Perhaps America should be returned.

Texas, New Mexico, part of California and other now US states belonged to Mexico until then President James Polk launched a fraudulent war of imperialism in 1848 against Mexico. We’ll have to talk about the Spanish American War created through yellow journalism at the time as well as America’s war in the Philippines in the early 20th century later on. Panama and the Panama Canal is yet another interesting point of American imperialist History.

Israel, however, came to existence based on a majority vote by the UN following the true Holocaust perpetuated by Hitler from which world Judaism still hasn’t recovered. Hitler’s ‘Final Solution’ literally killed about two-thirds of the global Jewish population at the time and up to 90% of Jews in Europe. Our global numbers still have not returned to what they were before WW2 and the Nazi Holocaust

People need to understand what is true genocide. For those rightly concerned about modern genocide, check Sudan, the DRC, Myanmar, China and the Uyghurs, Hamas’ return to brutalizing and murdering Gazan citizens (but that’s only of concern when the killing is by Israel)...among others. But for so many, an anti-Israel agenda prevails over all else.

It is true that grotesquely irresponsible members of Netanyahu’s coalition have called for even more extreme violence to include ethnic cleansing of Arabs from the Territories. Trump and his clan have also made such a reference via Jared Kushner’s ‘Gaza Riviera.’ But their talk is not the same as specific actions.

For constant declarations of and efforts towards real genocide and annihilation of Israel and every Israeli Jew (and every non-Israeli Jew), check on Iran, from Hezbollah, from Hamas, from ISIS - others - which they have also very actively pursued to include in the US multiple times ranging from Pittsburg to, quite recently, Michigan. Oct 7 is but one of many more examples from Israel.

It also didn’t matter to many that Hamas committed a genocidal act in southern Israel on October 7 starting with the left leaning ‘peace’ kibbutzim who supported a two state solution and often provided transportation to Gazan citizens receiving medical care in Israel. In fact, multiple ‘protests’ in support of Hamas’ genocidal slaughter and extreme sexual violence of 10/7 celebrated the event to include by groups in the US and the West.

Hamas deliberately set up Gazan citizens after 10/7 for mass suffering, death and to become international photo ops on their behalf while not offering its own citizens any protection or resources. Hamas took care of itself, however. I’ve yet to hear the blanket condemnation of Hamas so often thrown at Israel from those pretending to be ‘pro-Palestinian.’

Part of Israel’s problem is internal with Netanyahu, his Jewish Supremacist coalition and West Bank terrorist settlers acting with a perceived impunity. But if Israel wasn’t under constant, non-stop and ongoing attack since (and before) 1948, Netanyahu’s hard Right Faustian coalition would lose its most powerful and primary political card and symbiotic connections.

People who want peace should try telling Iran, Hamas, Hezbollah, Houthis, sympathizers and others, to leave Israel the hell alone. But they won’t since dead Jews are never a problem.

I’ve read that ‘Iran’s top negotiator says Israel (who was not involved or a signatory to any ‘deal’ since Trump cut them out) must withdraw from Southern Lebanon.’ And I might (maybe) accept this changed reality but only if it was formally written and agreed that Iran, Hezbollah and Hamas would stop all attacks on Israel immediately and forevermore.

But that’s hardly likely and has already been a problem even if not for Trump’s self-created delusion which has fully ignored Israel and agreed to talk to Iran even as, I’ve already written, that he praised Iran’s homicidal genocidal terrorist leaders as ‘smart’ and ‘reasonable’ while attacking Netanyahu as ‘viscious.’

That’s a long stretch from Trump’s (and Netanyahu’s) initial demands for ‘regime change’ in Iran and Trump’s once supposedly unaltering support for Israel with encouragement of Iranian citizens to rise up since he would ‘have their back. But Trump has never been a ‘friend of Israel’ but, instead, is one of evangelicals, Christian Zionists - and himself.

Israel now has a significantly escalated problem perhaps as severe as it ever has been post-1948. A first solution is to get Netanyahu out of office

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